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The S&P 500 is sitting at a record high.
If your account isn’t feeling the fortune, you’re not imagining it. Since early September, gains have been narrow. Only about a third of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day moving average, even as the index itself has pushed higher.
It’s a funky market, and it’s why I’m excited about this week.
When I asked the team what they’re watching, three of our four analysts pointed to the same cause: interest rates, with the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level since 2002.
In fact, Bryan Bottarelli is going live this Thursday, Oct. 15, at 2 p.m. EST to show you how he hunts for overnight gains in a market like this.
It’s free, and you can save your seat right here.
BRYAN BOTTARELLI | iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)
“Over the last month, rising interest rates have had a negative impact on small caps, which tend to carry higher debt loads (which include variable-rate debt). So, every up-tick in rates carries more of a burden for small-cap stocks than other larger conglomerates.”
When a small company’s variable-rate loan resets higher, the extra interest comes straight out of its profits, and out of your returns if you own it.
CJ JOHNSON | 10-Year Treasury Yield and RH (RH)
“Watch 5.37% on the 10-year yield. A breakout above that level raises the risk of another round of stock selling. Then watch RH at $115. It’s the canary in the coal mine for the retail sector.”
That 5.37% sits right above last week’s peak. RH sells high-end furniture, so if wealthy shoppers start pulling back, CJ expects you’ll see it there first.
KARIM RAHEMTULLA | Nuveen Municipal Value Fund (NUV)
“NUV for me. Fixed income is still in focus as rates will be volatile going into the midterms.”
NUV owns municipal bonds, which generally pay interest free from federal income tax. The same high rates hurting your small caps mean more income for new bond buyers.
NATE BEAR | SpaceX (SPCX)
“It’s pulling back and consolidating, building a flag. I love this chart for new highs for the move over $176.42.”
A flag is a short, tight pullback after a big run. SpaceX closed Friday at $162.57, about 8.5% below Nate’s trigger.
Watch 5.37% on the 10-year and $115 on RH all week, with the big banks reporting Tuesday. If you want income while rates swing, look at NUV, and set an alert on SpaceX at $176.42.
– Stephen Prior Publisher, Monument Traders Alliance
P.S. If the 10-year breaks CJ’s line before Thursday, Bryan’s Boiling Point live event is where he’ll show you how to trade a market like that.
