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Tonight, the most valuable company on the planet will report earnings.
And you can bet just about everyone on Wall Street will be watching.
Nvidia (NVDA) is expected to report roughly $92 billion in quarterly revenue, nearly double what it generated a year ago. Data-center revenue alone is expected to approach $86 billion as demand for AI computing remains incredibly strong.
Those numbers are almost hard to comprehend. Nvidia generated $215.9 billion in revenue during its entire last fiscal year. Now we’re talking about the company potentially generating more than $90 billion in three months.
But here’s the funny thing.
I’m not really watching Nvidia’s earnings tonight because of Nvidia.
I’m watching because I want to know where the money is going next.
I first recommended Nvidia in March 2019 at a split-adjusted price of $3.70.
AI wasn’t plastered across every earnings call back then. ChatGPT didn’t exist. Nvidia was worth about $92 billion, not $5 trillion. Most investors still primarily associated it with graphics cards and gaming.
But something much bigger was happening underneath the surface.
Nvidia’s GPUs were becoming increasingly important for data centers, AI, autonomous vehicles, and other computing-intensive applications. I didn’t know ChatGPT was coming. Nobody did. But I could see that computing was changing and Nvidia was positioned directly in front of that change.
The stock eventually reached $236.54, representing a gain of more than 6,200% from my original recommendation.
I’m proud of that call. But I’m more interested in what it can teach us today.
Because buying Nvidia now and buying Nvidia in 2019 are two very different investments.
Nvidia is worth more than $5 trillion today. Even if it eventually becomes a $10 trillion company (which I don’t think is crazy), that’s roughly another double.
That’s a fantastic return. But I’m looking for the companies that could potentially go from $5 billion to $50 billion… or $10 billion to $100 billion.
I’m looking for the next Nvidia…
That’s why tonight’s report matters.
Nvidia sits at the center of the AI buildout, which gives us an incredible window into where hundreds of billions of dollars are flowing.
I’m obviously watching demand for Blackwell and what Jensen Huang says about the upcoming Rubin platform. But I’ll be listening just as closely for clues about everything surrounding those chips.
How much computing capacity are customers building? Is demand still exceeding supply? How quickly is Rubin ramping? What does Nvidia say about networking, power requirements, and the next generation of AI data centers?
Because every Nvidia chip creates demand for a whole ecosystem around it.
AI needs memory. Networking. Cooling. Electricity. Transformers. Copper. Data centers. New power-generation capacity.
And eventually it needs entirely new applications: robotics, autonomous vehicles, healthcare, industrial automation, and technologies we probably haven’t even thought about yet.
That’s where I’m hunting.
Nvidia could crush expectations tonight and the stock could still fall. It wouldn’t be the first time.
In fact, despite repeatedly beating Wall Street estimates, Nvidia shares have frequently struggled immediately following recent earnings reports. Expectations are so high that simply delivering another great quarter may not be enough.
That’s why I wouldn’t read too much into Thursday morning’s stock price.
I’m thinking about Thursday morning five years from now.
When I recommended Nvidia at $3.70, there were plenty of ugly trading days ahead. There were corrections, crashes, recessions, rate hikes, wars, and enough scary headlines to convince you to sell a hundred different times.
None of them changed the bigger trend.
That’s one of the most important lessons I’ve learned from investing in innovation for more than two decades. Finding a great company is only half the battle. You must also understand the trend well enough to stick with it while everyone else is obsessing over the next quarter.
Tonight, Wall Street will be asking whether Nvidia beat by $1 billion or $3 billion.
I’ll be asking a different question.
What is Nvidia telling us about where the next 6,000% opportunity might be hiding?
That’s what I am interested in.
Time to make the First Move.
