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Starbucks (SBUX) just announced that it’s closing 250 stores…
But one stat my research team dug up has me looking to buy.
Since 2012, SBUX has posted an average return of 11.96% in the Novembers of election years. That’s roughly 3x stronger than its Novembers in non-election years, so this is a trade I’ll be following closely as we move into midterms.
Maybe it’s due to poll workers going on more frequent Starbucks runs…
Or maybe it’s due to increased spending on the popular (and more expensive) pumpkin spice latte? I’m a sucker for the pumpkin cream cold brew myself.
But whatever the reason, SBUX tends to outperform the major market averages, all starting within the next month.
The S&P 500 gets a November boost in election years, too. Its average November return rises from 2.65% in non-election years to 4.46% in election years, roughly 1.7x.
SBUX, on the other hand, has posted a 3x increase.
Here is the full case study below…
The 250 locations Starbucks is shutting are underperformers, about 1% of its 18,000 U.S. stores, and it’s the second round of trimming under CEO Brian Niccol. Meanwhile, the stores that stay open are getting busier.
In its latest quarter, Starbucks posted its fourth straight quarter of comparable-store sales growth, with global comps up 7.9% and transactions up 4.2%. More people are walking through the door, and management raised its full-year guidance.
This historical information may offer a timely entry point into SBUX.
As you can see below, SBUX stock has moved from $108 in August down to $94 here in September, so it may be setting up for another run as we head into the harvest months.
Even a re-test of the August highs would be a 13% gain from current levels, which is right in line with the historical performance noted above.
As Starbucks moves into an historically strong period, this may be a trade that I recommend to our active traders in the next few days. I wanted to share it with you today to give you just a small taste of what our elite trading community has to offer.
